Coffee lovers, we’re not here with great news. If you’re one of those people who need one or two warm cups to start the day, or an afternoon brew to keep the body going, this update might not sit well with you.
First came the eggs, their prices rising considerably, and now it’s coffee’s turn. One of the most consumed products in the United States is about to spike in price. A staple in every home, but where is this unprecedented increase coming from?
What’s happening with coffee?
Coffee isn’t just any beverage, no one dares mess with a good morning cup. It’s our favourite ritual —at least mine. In the U.S., it’s estimated that over 400 million cups are consumed daily, and now this price change is going to hit millions of households hard. Why? Multiple reasons are to blame, including the climate crisis on top of the economic one.
Coffee is getting more expensive
The data is clear and blunt, wholesale arabica coffee beans surpassed $4 per pound for the first time this past February, more than double what they cost a year ago.
The price even reached $4.30 per pound on February 13, and it’s been warned that prices will continue to climb, setting off alarm bells for producers, distributors, and now, for consumers, as we watch our savings drain just to stay awake in the morning.
Extreme weather in Brazil and Vietnam
Two of the world’s largest coffee exporters, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by extreme weather over the past year. Brazil suffered a major drought and a wave of frost in August that severely damaged crops. In Vietnam, on the other side of the world, torrential rains arrived after a long dry spell, wiping out entire coffee plantations.
And since Brazil alone supplies 40% of the world’s coffee, when its crops suffer due to climate or other issues, the entire world feels it.
Trump and tariffs
Another threat to coffee prices lies in U.S. trade policy. New tariffs proposed by the Trump administration could push prices even higher.
Illy Caffe, one of Italy’s most renowned coffee brands, already warns that these tariffs will show up in final retail prices, noting that the industry’s profit margins are under pressure due to the high cost of beans.
How will this affect consumers?
The impact will be immediate. A café or supermarket might not be able to absorb all the extra costs, which means customers could end up paying up to a dollar more (at first, though that could change) for every cup of coffee they drink, depending, of course, on the establishment.
How can we prepare for this?
Many consumers have already started “panic buying” coffee in bulk to keep a good supply at home. Our advice: you don’t need to stockpile kilos of coffee, but it’s definitely worth buying enough to brew at home.
Will coffee prices stabilize again?
Analysts aren’t too optimistic in the short term. While the coffee market has experienced situations like this before, never has it faced a combination of factors like the current one: extreme climate, trade tensions, and global demand. The outlook doesn’t look too bright.
We all need to be aware that global warming affects us in every way possible, sustainability is and should be our top priority if we don’t want basic items like coffee to someday exist only in our memories.
