by Dallas, TX – Texas residents are bracing for a sharp increase in health insurance premiums in 2026, a challenge that is part of a larger nationwide trend. With enhanced tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) set to expire at the end of 2025, premium costs are projected to spike significantly, creating concerns for households and policymakers alike.
Premiums Set to Rise Nationwide
Across the United States, premiums for ACA-compliant plans are expected to rise by an average of 18 percent, marking the highest rate hike since 2018. Some states will see even steeper increases. Allison Hoffman, professor of law and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, told Newsweek that the surge highlights a “historic jump” in health insurance costs.
Texas Hit Harder Than Most
The impact will be particularly severe in Texas. According to the Texas Department of Insurance, carriers in the state have filed for an average 33 percent increase in the individual marketplace. Officials say the jump reflects the loss of expanded subsidies, ongoing medical cost trends, and nationwide marketplace uncertainty.
Why It Matters
Experts warn that higher premiums could force many Texans to drop their health insurance, worsening overall health outcomes while pushing rates even higher. Younger and healthier individuals are often the first to opt out, leaving insurers to cover a sicker pool of patients who require more expensive care.
What to Know About Expiring Subsidies
The enhanced tax credits, first introduced by President Joe Biden to expand access to health coverage, were extended through 2025. However, with the Trump administration showing no indication of renewing the subsidies due to their cost, they are currently set to expire at year’s end.
Without these subsidies, people who expect minimal medical needs may choose not to renew coverage, further straining the system. “Insurers may preemptively increase premiums out of concerns about tariffs or other federal regulations,” Hoffman explained.
Other Factors Driving Costs
While the end of subsidies plays a major role, experts say other forces are also driving premiums upward. Inflation, rising labor costs, and the growing expense of specialty drugs—such as GLP-1 medications for weight management—are contributing to the spike. Richard Scheffler, professor of health economics at the University of California, Berkeley, noted that rising insurance rates remain “routine” as health care prices continue to climb.
What Happens Next
The proposed increases apply to the 2026 calendar year. As insurance carriers and regulators finalize rates, many Texans are left questioning whether they will be able to maintain coverage. Policymakers and consumer advocates warn that the coming months could shape not only health care access but also affordability for millions of Americans.
