by Washington, D.C. — The U.S. Senate has voted to advance a long-debated bill that would reopen the federal government and pave the way for a potential vote next month on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, also known as Obamacare. However, deep partisan divisions continue to cloud the future of the measure.
Senate Moves to End Longest Government Shutdown
Late Sunday evening, senators voted 60–40 to move forward with the bill to end what has become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The measure gained rare bipartisan support, with seven Democrats and one independent joining Republicans to advance the legislation.
The proposal must still clear the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump before it can formally reopen the government.
Why the ACA Subsidies Are Central to the Fight
At the core of the standoff are ACA subsidies, which help low-income Americans afford health insurance. Created under former President Barack Obama, the subsidies were expanded in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide broader access to coverage amid widespread job losses.
These subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025, sparking a political showdown between Democrats, who want to extend them, and Republicans, who argue that doing so would add unnecessary government spending.
Democrats warn that failure to renew the subsidies would lead to higher insurance premiums for millions of Americans. Meanwhile, Republicans have pushed for a clean funding bill that would reopen the government without tying it to the subsidy extension.
The Vote and the Political Stakes
Although the Senate advanced the funding measure, Democrats remain cautious. Their support for reopening the government came only after Republican leadership agreed to hold a future vote on extending the ACA subsidies — a promise that carries no guarantee of passage.
With Republicans holding a 53–47 majority, Democrats would need 13 GOP senators to vote in favor of the subsidy extension to secure its passage.
“Given the amount of attention the subsidies have received during the shutdown, it’s possible some Republicans could support an extension,” said Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, in an interview with Newsweek. “But it could also narrowly fail. We may see the subsidy become more targeted to lower incomes as part of a compromise.”
Impact on Americans and the Health Care Market
If lawmakers fail to act, an estimated 24 million Americans could face higher healthcare costs. According to KFF, premiums could more than double in 2026 if the subsidies expire. Some recipients may still qualify for smaller tax credits, but many could lose financial assistance altogether.
Mark Shepard, associate professor at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, told Newsweek that “the deal probably means the ACA subsidies will expire in January.”
“Even if the Senate votes to extend them, passage in the House is doubtful,” Shepard said. “An extension would require bipartisan compromise on healthcare, which seems harder with each passing day.”
Shepard added that while the ACA Marketplace wouldn’t collapse, the loss of subsidies would cause premium spikes, coverage dropouts, and a sicker risk pool.
“This deal is really a non-deal,” he said. “It doesn’t address the fundamental problems with coverage and affordability in America’s healthcare system.”
Economic and Market Reaction
The uncertainty has already rippled through financial markets. On Monday, shares of major health insurance companies dropped between 2% and 10%, according to Reuters.
James Harlow, senior vice president at Novare Capital Management, said the industry remains on edge: “If ACA subsidies aren’t extended, that’s a negative for health insurers and hospitals.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump weighed in over the weekend, suggesting on Truth Social that funds currently going to insurance companies should instead be sent directly to Americans so they can manage their own healthcare needs.
What Happens Next
The House of Representatives must now vote on the agreement to reopen the government. Even if it passes, the future of ACA subsidies will likely remain a central flashpoint in the coming weeks — one that could define both next year’s midterm elections and the broader debate over healthcare reform in the United States.
Should Congress extend ACA subsidies to keep healthcare affordable, or focus on broader system reforms instead? Share your views below — join the discussion with other Newbreak readers!
