by Bentonville, Arkansas — As the federal government shutdown stretches into its 27th day, major retailers like Walmart may soon feel serious financial fallout. If Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments are paused beginning November 1, the nation’s largest retailer could suffer billions in lost revenue — a hit closely tied to the millions of households who depend on federal food aid to buy groceries.
A report from the market research firm Numerator shows that 24 percent of all SNAP spending nationwide goes to Walmart stores. With the federal government allocating around $100 billion annually — or $8.3 billion monthly — toward SNAP benefits, withholding those funds could cost Walmart approximately $2 billion in November alone if assistance is suspended the entire month.
Why It Matters for Walmart and the Economy
More than 40 million Americans rely on SNAP to purchase food every month. The shutdown, which began October 1 due to disagreements over Affordable Care Act subsidies, has already become one of the longest shutdowns in U.S. history. While Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits continue, federal officials warn that SNAP funds are nearly exhausted.
Economic experts say the consequences would extend well beyond customer hardship.
Ismael Martinez, economist at the Economic Policy Institute, told reporters that halting SNAP payments would cause major disruptions for grocery retailers:
“SNAP makes up about 8 percent of all retail grocery spending. Even a short interruption could lead to layoffs or other painful adjustments in this sector.”
Martinez emphasized that Walmart relies heavily on these purchases, with more than 8 percent of its grocery sales tied directly to SNAP spending.
“It is difficult to understate just how important SNAP benefits are to economically vulnerable families, children and the broader economy,” he said.
Big-Box Retailers Most Affected
Numerator’s analysis — which reviewed purchasing habits from 31,600 verified SNAP recipients and responses from more than 1,250 participants — shows that food assistance dollars increasingly flow to national retail chains:
- Walmart – 24 percent
- Kroger – 8 percent
- Costco – 6 percent
- Amazon – 5 percent
- Sam’s Club – 4 percent
Walmart reported revenues of $681 billion in its most recent fiscal year, meaning a decline in SNAP-funded spending could discourage growth and potentially affect operations across multiple states.
Industry groups representing independent grocers are also sounding alarms. The National Grocers Association urged Congressional leaders to reach a bipartisan funding agreement, calling SNAP “a powerful economic engine for communities big and small.”
Federal Dispute Leaves Millions Uncertain
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), overseer of SNAP, confirmed that benefits will not be issued starting November 1 unless Congress acts. Officials said contingency funds — estimated at $5 billion — will not be used to extend program payments.
The agency blamed the ongoing halt on Senate Democrats, stating they have repeatedly declined to approve funding legislation that would restore operations. Meanwhile, Democrats assert that Republicans, who lead the shutdown charge, hold the responsibility to reopen the government.
With political negotiations stalled, food insecurity and economic instability are becoming increasingly urgent concerns for states, families, and retailers alike.
What Happens Next
If Congressional leaders do not reach an agreement soon, the halt of SNAP benefits could result in:
- Immediate loss of food access for millions of Americans
- Sharp declines in grocery revenue
- Job cuts, particularly at major retailers
- Increased pressure on food banks already nearing capacity
Economists warn that damage could escalate quickly if benefits fail to resume early in November.
