Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are almost tied in the swing state race. New polls released Tuesday show that Trump has a slight edge in Nevada and Georgia.
In Georgia, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters released on Tuesday showed that Trump is ahead by four points, 47% to 43%. A Washington Post-Schar poll released on Monday showed that Harris is ahead by four points, 51% to 47%. This comes after a Quinnipiac poll released last week showed that Trump was ahead 52% to 45%. A study from FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump is ahead by 1.6 points.
A new poll from AARP on Tuesday shows that Trump is ahead by one point, 47% to 46%. Another poll from the Washington Post and Schar shows that they are tied at 48%, but a poll from the Wall Street Journal on October 11 showed Trump ahead by 5 points. FiveThirtyEight’s average of the polls shows that Harris is ahead by 0.2 points.
Arizona: The Washington Post-Schar School poll shows Trump ahead by three points, 49% to 46%. This is the same result as last week’s CBS/YouGov poll, which showed Trump ahead 51% to 48%. However, the Journal poll showed Harris ahead by two points, 47% to 45%. Based on the polls that FiveThirtyEight looks at, Trump is ahead by 1.9 points.
There are two polls out today in North Carolina. The Washington Post-Schar poll has Trump ahead by three points, 50% to 47%. The Quinnipiac poll has Harris ahead by two points, 49% to 47%. According to FiveThirtyEight, he has a 0.9-point lead.
Harris leads by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar poll. She led by three points, 50% to 47% (closer to four points when not rounded up), in two polls released on October 12 by the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College. In the Wall Street Journal poll, Trump had a one-point lead. FiveThirtyEight’s average of the polls shows that Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.4 points.
Michigan: The Washington Post-Schar poll shows Harris ahead by two points, 49% to 47%. This is the same result found by the Wall Street Journal, which also found Harris ahead by two points. On the other hand, a Quinnipiac poll from October 9 found Trump ahead by three points, 50% to 47%. A study from FiveThirtyEight shows that Harris is only 0.1 points ahead in Michigan.
Two polls out this week show that Trump has a two-point lead over Harris in Wisconsin. The Washington Post-Schar poll gives Trump a five-point lead, with 50% to 47%. The Journal poll gives Trump a one-point lead, with 48% to 46%. Averaged over by FiveThirtyEight, Harris is now ahead by 0.4 points.
Big Number
0.9. This is how many points Harris has over Trump in the national polls average from RealClearPolitics. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows that she is ahead by 1.7 points.
